“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” ~ Warren Buffett
Like your one-and-only high school girlfriend, I have rebounded a lot quicker from the dumping I took in the previous two weeks than you would have thought. In the case that you missed my picks last week because you don’t follow me Twitter, here they were:
So it appears that even I cannot escape the NFL’s propensity this year to tie games, even when I am trying to make money off of them. I am just thankful, at this point, that it ended graciously in a tie ATS, because after going up 24-7 in the first half, Oakland then looked like they weren’t showing up to play the rest of the game. I will admit, picking Cleveland with the points might have been a little foolish, but for a while it was looking, too, like the Giants offense wasn’t showing up to play either. Every Giant fan should be bowing down to guys such as Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins, and thanking the Football gods that the Cleveland Browns will inevitably be the Cleveland Browns. Alas, I cannot forget the best two-minute drill Coach and QB combo, Andy Reid and Alex Smith (read with sarcasm), who actually engineered a last minute win that saved my wagers. Going into this week, I am sitting at 22-14-1 and in addition may be backdoor-ing my way into both my fantasy football league playoffs, but who cares about that? On to the picks!
The Battle of the Beards (Jets +2 vs Colts, and UNDER 48.5)
This one is for all the meaningless marbles, folks! A parlay in a battle of who couldn’t care the least. Andrew Luck will take the struggling Colts to MetLife to play the ailing Jets. This plane is definitely crashing. That plane, however, is not a jetplane. The Colts have a miserable offensive line that has allowed Luck to be sacked 35 times in 10 games, and left him unprotected and on the concussion protocol. As of writing this column, Luck hadn’t even cleared concussion protocol. My money is on him being less than 100% in in-game, and if the Colts have to field Scott Tolzien, you can book it at MetLife. Take the Jets in a lean scoring game.
Pirates in the Bay! (Buccaneers +3.5 vs Chargers)
I am unrepentantly high on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Their record isn’t as glittering as I think it should be (I would swear they should have beaten the Raiders the way it was played), but Jameis Winston and his team have be playing pretty good football and are toughing it out in mostly every lately. They’re on a 3-game winning streak, the last of which was a dismantling of the Seahawks. Don’t count the Buccs out of anything…except maybe the playoffs, but more on that later in the week.
In the Den of Thieves (Broncos -3.5 vs Jaguars)
This pick is at this point a lead pipe lock for me. In reading the line, I can’t understand why it continues to go in Jacksonville’s favor, with 65% of the money going to Denver. Despite being on the road, Denver is far and away better than Jacksonville, and I would take Denver as a -7 point favorite in this situation. As far as ATS trends go, Jacksonville is alright, while Denver is a nightmare when they matchup, and I should mention that the supposed “smart money” is trending towards the Jags. That being said, I can’t bring myself to pick Jacksonville, especially how Denver had been playing. Take this with a grain of salt and consideration of law of averages, but Jacksonville can’t beat this team.
Just Football Picks this week! I’ll have a few big features for next Saturday’s column. Follow me on Twitter for all of my extracurricular activities!